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Avoid Inflated and Spurious Correlations

Biomass Rules Posted on September 26, 2024 by Mark JennerSeptember 26, 2024

It is an election year, and the number of charts showing the economy-wide influences by a single factor are up.  A recent chart making a thin claim about the cause of inflation struck me as a similar rhythm to my … Continue reading →

Posted in analytics, economics, policy, science | Tagged association, avoid inflated and spurious correlations, causality, Consumer Price Index (CPI), CPI 1982-1984=100, creative thinking, critical thinking, easy data likely not representative, factors that influence inflation, pay attention, spurious correlations | Leave a reply

Forecasting a Plague with Moving Averages

Biomass Rules Posted on September 23, 2024 by Mark JennerSeptember 23, 2024

Moving averages are the most basic tool, taught in undergraduate courses as an introduction to forecasting.  Prior to the pandemic, commodity futures charts were the go-to illustration of the benefits of moving averages for undergraduate students.  Moving averages smooth out the … Continue reading →

Posted in analytics, definition, policy, science | Tagged 7-day moving average, basic tool, Center for Disease Control (CDC), COVID, data uncertainty, false negative, false positive, forecasting, forecasting a plague with moving averages, moving averages, negative, new cases per day, pandemic, plague, poor quality data, positive, uniform protocol | Leave a reply

BioTown, USA – Sourcing Local Biomass Energy Feedstocks

Biomass Rules Posted on September 19, 2024 by Mark JennerSeptember 19, 2024

Twenty years ago the State of Indiana asked question, “Does a rural community produce sufficient organic wastes to provide energy for the community?”  Fortuitously, Indiana’s BioTown, USA project invited Biomass Rules, LLC to help answer the question.  Today’s table summarizes … Continue reading →

Posted in analytics, economics, production, science | Tagged anaerobic digester, BioTown, BioTown USA, brown grease, corn stalks, feedstocks, Indiana, manure, municipal solid waste (MSW), natural gas, power, Reynolds, septage, sewage, sourcing local biomass energy, transportation fuel, USA sourcing local biomass energy feedstocks, wastes to energy, White County, yellow grease | Leave a reply

The Economics of Food – It is Just A Little More Complicated

Biomass Rules Posted on September 17, 2024 by Mark JennerSeptember 17, 2024

Hemp seeds command a premium price.  USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) now reports weekly hemp product prices.  In the September 11, 2024 report, one pound of hemp seeds was reported at $12.64.  That is down from $14.39 per pound the … Continue reading →

Posted in analytics, economics, policy, science | Tagged absolute, almonds, benefits, cannabis sativa, complicated, costs, economic efficiency, economics of food, farm commodity, hemp seeds, index, peanuts, prices, relative, retail food product, sunflower seeds, the economics of food is just a little more complicated | Leave a reply

Impressions of a Fledgling Blogger – Day 257

Biomass Rules Posted on September 16, 2024 by Mark JennerSeptember 16, 2024

As an economist, I have been trained to see the world through a lens of critical thinking.  As a manure visionary, I have been trained to look beyond traditional monetary values to measure both benefits and costs.  If and when … Continue reading →

Posted in Biomass Rules, economics, policy, science | Tagged agribusiness, bioenergy, biomass, blog, Census of Agriculture, clarification, climate, Day 257, economics, fledgling blogger, food systems, hemp production, impressions, Impressions of a fledgling blogger on day 257, inflations, local markets, renewable natural gas RNG | Leave a reply

Dr. Jenner is Absolutely Crazy about Dollar Signs – What the Function

Biomass Rules Posted on September 12, 2024 by Mark JennerSeptember 12, 2024

Cell addresses in spreadsheets, by default are relative objects.  This means that when a formula is copied in Excel the relationship to adjacent cells that are included in the copied cell formula, also gets copied.  If the cell to the … Continue reading →

Posted in analytics, science, What the Function | Tagged absolute reference, absolutely, cell, cell anchor, column, crazy, dollar signs, Dr. Jenner, Dr. Jenner is absolutely crazy about dollar signs, Excel, intercept, Microsoft, object, powerful, relative reference, renewable natural gas RNG, row, slope, spreadsheet, what the function | Leave a reply

A Case of Pricing Wheat from Farm to Food

Biomass Rules Posted on September 10, 2024 by Mark JennerSeptember 10, 2024

Food pricing has many layers.  Earlier, it was established that Biomass Rules considers food to be retail consumption of human nutrients.  There are exceptions, but this working definition simplifies many parts.  It is easy to look at the farm gate … Continue reading →

Posted in analytics, economics, policy, science | Tagged absolute, bread, bushels, case of pricing wheat from farm to food, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Economic Research Service (ERS), farm to food, flour, food inflation, food-at-home, food-away-from-home, grams, index, loaves, ounces, pancakes, pounds, pricing wheat, relative, wheat | Leave a reply

Turn-of-the-Century Biofuel-Fossil Feedstock Dynamics

Biomass Rules Posted on September 7, 2024 by Mark JennerSeptember 7, 2024

The more things change, it seems the more they stay the same.  This Biomass Rules chart with data from 2006, appeared in Chapter 19: Williams, James L. and Mark Jenner. Petroleum Dependence, Biofuels – Economies Of Scope And Scale; US … Continue reading →

Posted in definition, economics, policy | Tagged $/MMBTU., biofuel-to-fossil feedstock dynamics, crude oil, energy values, FAME biodiesel, feed, food, fossil diesel, fuel, Jim Williams, number 2 yellow grease, renewable diesel, turn-of-the-century, turn-of-the-century biofuel-to-fossil feedstock dynamics, used vegetable oil | Leave a reply

Mining the 2022, Census of Agriculture – What the Function

Biomass Rules Posted on September 5, 2024 by Mark JennerSeptember 5, 2024

The first federal census of agriculture was conducted in 1840.  It has been conducted for 184 years.  The oldest hardcopy of the US Census of Agriculture in the Biomass Rules collection is from 1982.  We have been reading and analyzing … Continue reading →

Posted in analytics, economics, science, What the Function | Tagged 2022 Census of Agriculture, categories, data mining, Excel, IF(), IFNA(), ISBLANK(), LEN, mining the 2022 Census of Agriculture - what the function, nested functions, numeric values, RIGHT(), text string, TEXTBEFORE(), TRIM(), USDA, what the function | Leave a reply

The Seminal Role of Commodities in Food Value

Biomass Rules Posted on September 3, 2024 by Mark JennerSeptember 3, 2024

Paying $3 for a drive-thru coffee is a rational choice when the alternative is no coffee at all.  It is also reasonable to pay $4 for a box of corn cereal.  If one, 12-ounce box of cereal provides 8 bowls … Continue reading →

Posted in definition, economics, policy | Tagged affordable, cereal, commodities, corn grain, disposable income, distributor, Economic Research Service (ERS), food, food dollar, food value, inputs, processor, rational, retailer, seminal role, seminal role of commodities in food value, supply chain, USDA | Leave a reply

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Recent Posts

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Mark Jenner, PhD
Biomass Rules
Greenville, IL 62246
c. 618.223.9331
e. biomassrules@gmail.com

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Mission Statement:
Providing solutions through the strategic utilization of all kinds of biomass; the development of new markets for food, fiber, and fuels; and streamlining regulations.

bio·mass:
ˈbī-ō-ˌmas. noun. 1 : the unit area or volume of living matter, 2 : plant materials and animal waste used as renewable feedstocks into new processes.

rules:
'rül. 1: noun. 1 : regulations, bylaws or governing procedure, 2: verb. a : to exert control, direction, or influence on, b : to declare authoritatively.

Manure…
is not a four-letter word.

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