# Biomass Rules > Adding Clarity to All Things Bio! ## Posts - [Industry Terminology has a Powerful Policy Impact - Definitive Power](https://biomassrules.com/industry-terminology-has-a-powerful-policy-impact-definitive-power/):   I had the unique privilege of being hired by the American Farm Bureau Federation in 1995 – straight out completing my PhD – because I had three graduate degrees in manure management.  My other Farm Bureau responsibilities included eggs, poultry meat (poultry production contracts), public access to agricultural data, and my area of expertise, manure.  I got to take advantage of endless vocation-related humor such as telling folks I had ‘manure on my name tag (because the word manure was literally on it).’ Becoming a national leader in manure use and policy had not been on my bucket list, … Continue reading → - [For 40 Years, Real Cost of Thanksgiving Meal Price Remains Constant](https://biomassrules.com/for-40-years-real-cost-of-thanksgiving-meal-price-remains-constant/): Serving as the American Farm Bureau Federation’s Thanksgiving economist in the 1990s was a pleasure.  The cost of food thirty years ago was generally good news, so there was no downside.  Unlike most of the more contested issues I worked on a daily basis, giving consumers good food news in November was enjoyable.  It still is. Today’s chart is frequently published by American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) in their annual survey report, but it did not appear in this year’s 11/19/25 report.  Biomass Rules is happy to supply it! This fall the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS), consumer price … Continue reading → - [US Turkey Growers Do Not Receive Same Market Benefit as the Industry](https://biomassrules.com/us-turkey-growers-do-not-receive-same-market-benefit-as-the-industry/): Thanksgiving arrives with an annual focus on food prices.  We host friends and family at home with lots of prepared food.  One of the annual food price traditions is the American Farm Bureau Federation, Thanksgiving Survey.  Regular readers know that this gets play in this space because I was an AFBF Thanksgiving economist for 8 years (1995 to 2002).  I love the educational value it provides as well as the annual tradition.  There is no downside.  In the last 40 years, even when the prices increase, the Thanksgiving meal is still a great food value. The value of this survey … Continue reading → - [St. Louis is a Hub of US Farm Production - St. Louis Agribusiness Club](https://biomassrules.com/st-louis-is-a-hub-of-us-farm-production-st-louis-agribusiness-club/): In September, the St. Louis Agribusiness Club released their 2025 Economic Study of the agribusiness economic impact on the St. Louis region.  For those of us in this region, it is validation of the passion we have for working in the agribusiness industry in this area.  It is a similar story for any major statistical area in the upper Midwest. The report found that in 2024, the St. Louis Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) has a local agribusiness gross domestic product (GDP) of $25.7 billion dollars and a total job contribution of 176,088 job direct and indirect jobs. In the St. … Continue reading → - [Anaerobic Digestion of Food Waste is Growing](https://biomassrules.com/anaerobic-digestion-of-food-waste-is-growing/): New market demand for renewable natural gas (RNG), or biogenic methane, is growing.  First, the EPA AgStar historical farm digester data was charted to illustrate the rapid recent growth in farm digesters.  Next, the EPA Landfill Methane Outreach Program (LMOP) historical data was then charted to show the early rapid growth followed by a slower growth in the near term.  This post highlights EPAs limited anaerobic food waste digestion. While there are tiny places where they overlap, these biogenic methane datasets are largely separate sources of biogas. Today’s chart is from the October 1, 2025 report, Anaerobic Digestion Facilities Processing … Continue reading → - [Historical Growth of Landfill Gas Projects in EPA LMOP Dataset](https://biomassrules.com/historical-growth-of-landfill-gas-projects-in-epa-lmop-dataset/): EPA’s Landfill Methane Outreach Program (LMOP) dataset is a foundation of the transformation of negative methane emissions into beneficial use of biogenic natural gas.  This transition is robust, dynamic, and well documented. It has always been the older sibling to the farm digester AgStar dataset discussed in the earlier post, Cultivating Fuel on Farms and the Growth of the US Farm Digester Industry.  Biomass Rules has relied on both datasets for promotion of biomass opportunities since they became available many years ago. The expansion of the smaller farm digester methane utilization data is only just beginning to bring these two … Continue reading → - [Farm Digesters are Busting Out All Over](https://biomassrules.com/farm-digesters-are-busting-out-all-over/): This fun map from EPA, AgStar farm digester website gives a striking visual of the distribution of US farm digesters.  The largest digesters are fewer than ten years old. This dataset was last updated in 2024.  At that time there were 400 farm digesters.  In 2004, the same dataset reported 28 farm digesters. Because of the very different size of digesters this type of chart helps illustrate that different size farms are producing methane from manure.  Note that the different species have different animal numbers associated with the different-sized circles.  The largest circles exaggerate the local impact.  Those farms do … Continue reading → - [Cultivating Fuel on Farms and the Growth of the US Farm Digester Industry](https://biomassrules.com/cultivating-fuel-on-farms-and-the-growth-of-the-us-farm-digester-industry/): Revenue-generating renewable methane is real and a growing industry. My encounter with MAAS Energy Works at Simpson University in Redding, California earlier this month, was a homecoming for Biomass Rules. The importance of this topic was reenforced with the American Biogas Council, Business of Biogas Conference held in St. Louis, Missouri this week. A graphic of the growth of the US farm digester industry was in order. Anaerobic lagoons on farms sprung out of the compliance period of the Clean Water Act (1972).  In the 1970s and 1980s, US farms invested in cost effective anaerobic manure lagoon technologies.  They were … Continue reading → - [Just a Kid in a 'Biogenic Methane' Candy Store](https://biomassrules.com/just-a-kid-in-a-biogenic-methane-candy-store/): While at visiting Simpson University’s Operation Management’s class last week, I received a welcomed education!  The day I was visiting Simpson University’s Business Department, so was MAAS Energy Works.  Wow!  Such a happy convergence. Twenty years ago, through Biomass Rules, I played a formative role in shaping biomass energy development.  I was a carbohydrate drooling advocate for all things bio, but particularly excited about the conversion of liquid organic slops into biogas and nutrients.  BioTown, USA in Indiana, and later a study of Californian biomass potential in a Biomass Management Zone study at UC Davis’ California Biomass Collaborative were formative … Continue reading → - [Lessons of Living Shared with Simpson University Macroeconomic Students](https://biomassrules.com/lessons-of-living-shared-with-simpson-university-macroeconomic-students/): I really enjoyed spending a recent class period with macroeconomic students at Simpson University in Redding, California.  Simpson is a private, faith-based college similar to Greenville University where I taught for eight years.  One constant over my 45-year career, is that I am most certainly an economist.  I am grateful for the invitation to participate from Simpson President, Norm Hall (pictured), Business Department Chair, Dan Sloan, and economist, Dr. Ben Omwando. Economic theory is not unlike the English language.  There are defined rules with many, many exceptions to those rules.  In truth, both in economics and English, the exceptions are … Continue reading → - [Eight Percent of US Farms Are Associated with Renewable Energy](https://biomassrules.com/eight-percent-of-us-farms-are-associated-with-renewable-energy/): The farm-based renewable energy information in the 2022 Census of Agriculture is informative, but the data available is rather course. This Census data is not available anywhere but in the 2022 Census of Agriculture.  It does not, however, include capacities or dollar values.  Therefore, only gentle inferences can be made.  The six categories of 2022 on-farm renewable energy activities presented in the Census are solar, wind, geothermal (geo), small-scale hydroelectric (hydro), methane or anaerobic digesters (digesters), and wind rights leased to others. This presentation of the Census data from the 2022 Farm Typology compares the six different categories within each … Continue reading → - [2022 Census of Agriculture Farm Typology Volume 2 Has Arrived](https://biomassrules.com/2022-census-of-agriculture-typology-volume-2-has-arrived/): The USDA released the initial 2022 Census of Agriculture files in February 2024.  We had to wait 18 months to get the farm typology data released in August of 2025.  It is the same data, but it is organized by the Gross Cash Farm Income (GCFI) of family farms and non-family farms.  GCFI includes the farm producer’s sales of crops and livestock, fees for delivering commodities under production contracts, government payments, and farm-related income. The category, fees for delivering commodities under production contracts, adds some complexity.  Using the values in Table 42, Commodities Raised and Delivered Under Production Contracts, the … Continue reading → - [Local Agribusiness Economic Study Delivered to St. Louis Agribusiness Club](https://biomassrules.com/local-agribusiness-economic-study-delivered-to-st-louis-agribusiness-club/): Monday, September 22, 2025, the 2025 Agribusiness Economic and Jobs Study, 2025, results were presented to the St. Louis Agribusiness Club.  The St. Louis Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) agribusiness economic impact has grown since the last study in 2019. Based on 2024 data, the St. Louis MSA has a local agribusiness gross domestic product (GDP) of $25.7 billion dollars and a total job contribution of 176,088 job direct and indirect jobs.  The direct agribusiness GDP comes from the sum of production agriculture ($1.41 billion), processing and manufacturing ($4.66 billion), and agricultural inputs and services ($9.16 billion).  Agribusiness GDP from indirect … Continue reading → - [US Peace Corps is 64 Years Old, A Secret Weapon of World Peace](https://biomassrules.com/us-peace-corps-is-64-years-old-a-secret-weapon-of-world-peace/): Service in the US Peace Corps in 1982 to 1984 was a 27-month investment in my life more than 40 years ago that continues to pay dividends today. A significant life lesson for me has been that substantive improvements in quality of life take vision, hard work, and decades, often generations. The corollary to that is that near-term (current) economic disruptions, although often unbearably painful, do not endure. I went over to Nepal to help farmers grow more food with limited resources. We did great things together regarding growing more crops. The great prize was I learned far more from … Continue reading → - [The Best Part of the Farm Progress Show is the People](https://biomassrules.com/the-best-part-of-the-farm-progress-show-is-the-people/): People drive the agricultural industry.  AgriCULTURE is built on culture.  Every year the Farm Progress Show provides a forum for learning about the newest and best technology in production agriculture – mostly crop production.  But my experience is that it is the people that make the show successful. I enjoyed the passion and commitment from the company representatives, who even after 3 days were still excited to tell farmers and show participants how the newest and latest innovation was going to enhance their farm production systems.  I had the most fun, 1) running into colleagues, and 2) comparing notes with … Continue reading → - [Authentic Fun with Arrival of First Copies of My First Book](https://biomassrules.com/authentic-fun-with-arrival-of-first-copies-of-my-first-book/): First time author, book arrival moment. It was authentically gratifying! Late the other night, my wife, Tracy Hall, made a comment about the cameras catching the delivery truck. I said, “what delivery truck?” Well, what do you know? A box of books arrived. It is pretty cool (even exhausted). The books, Principles of Agribusiness Management, sixth edition, are available through Waveland Press at https://www.waveland.com/browse.php?t=7 - [Our Community Loves to Support Our Junior Livestock Show - Secret Life of Rural Communities](https://biomassrules.com/our-community-loves-to-support-our-junior-livestock-show-secret-life-of-rural-communities/): Every August our Bond County rural community loves to love up the young livestock show youth.  During the County Fair the show animals are auctioned off in an interesting combination of bragging rights (for who purchased – bid the highest price) – for so and so’s son or daughter’s show animal.  Sometimes it is local businesses, or elected officials, bidding against each other to get into the local news and hearts of the community. If a steer or barrow is not a high enough price, it is not uncommon community members, not connected to the youth, to simply bid the … Continue reading → - [It is Official. Mark Jenner is a Flaming Nerd.](https://biomassrules.com/it-is-official-mark-jenner-is-a-flaming-nerd/): Being Mark Jenner is a honed, discipline.  It doesn’t just happen.  Sometimes, it is exhausting.  Mostly it is, quite simply, a GRAND ADVENTURE!!!  I just returned from my professional ag economist meetings in Denver.  And it is official.  I am a card-carrying nerd. And I am not just your normal status quo nerd.  I am so nerdy, I don’t really fit the conventional professional agricultural economic standards.  I am a nerd’s nerd. A flaming nerd in fact, often fired up about burning biomass. But the Agricultural and Applied Economist Association (AAEA) are so cool they welcome me in every year.  … Continue reading → - [The Legacy Textbook, Principles in Agribusiness Management, is at the Printers!](https://biomassrules.com/the-legacy-textbook-principles-in-agribusiness-management-is-at-the-printers/): A few years ago, I was invited to revise the popular, 30-year introductory agribusiness textbook, Principles in Agribusiness Management by James G. Beierlein, Kenneth C. Schneeberger, and Donald D. Osburn.  I was both flattered and thrilled.  Since 2014, the fifth edition has been the most recent edition available. Until now. On Friday, July 25, Waveland Press, posted the Sixth Edition that includes Mark W. Jenner as an author.  I am beyond excited! In 2016, both James G. Beierlein and my doctoral advisor, Donald D. Osburn, passed away.  I had just recently begun teaching introductory agribusiness at Greenville University.  I had … Continue reading → - [US Producer Age Differs by Farm Enterprise](https://biomassrules.com/us-producer-age-differs-by-farm-enterprise/): The USDA, 2022 Census of Agriculture, Volume 1, Table 75, provides farm data on what is produced by all farms, but it also provides census data by area of farm specialization.  These are identified by NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) code. These codes allow examination of producer age by area of specialization.  It is clear that some farm types have younger producers, some are fairly evenly distributed between age categories, and others are dominated by elder farmers.  In the associated chart, only selected farm specializations have been selected. Farms represented by more than one third of producers that are … Continue reading → - [US Farm Producer Age Category by Value of Production - Part II](https://biomassrules.com/us-farm-producer-age-category-by-value-of-production-part-ii/): In the recent post, US Farmer Age is Inversely Related to Value of Production, average farm producer age in 2022 was 55 years of age on farms that had over $1,000,000 in annual farm production.  All 3.5 million farm producers average age was 58.1 years.  The oldest category as defined in Volume 1, Table 72 of the 2022 Census of Agriculture, were producers that produced less than $1,000 of value.  The age of this category was 60.5 years old.  These accounted for 11 percent of harvested crop acres and nearly 10 percent of the land and machinery assets on the … Continue reading → - [US Farmer Age is Inversely Related to Value of Production](https://biomassrules.com/us-farmer-age-is-inversely-related-to-value-of-production/): Since the 2022 Census of Agriculture was released in February 2024, there has been extensive discussion about the aging of farmers and producers.  It is true.  With each successive Census – every 5 years – the average age of farmers gets higher.  Some have inferred that this might be a threat to the continuance of the abundance of agricultural products and services we enjoy.  This is a good thing to explore. However, the 1.9 million farms with 3.5 million producers in the 2022 Census of Agriculture are not homogeneous.  They are more different than similar in many ways.  The answers … Continue reading → - [Hemp Producers are Bucking the Aging Farmer Trend](https://biomassrules.com/hemp-producers-are-bucking-the-aging-farmer-trend/): The USDA provides a treasury of farm data in many different formats.  With decades of farm data experience, I hoped I could bring new insights into the ‘aging farmer’ discussion.  What I learned instead is that hemp producers don’t fit the aging farmer trend.  Perhaps these specialized new farmers might serve as a template for either refining old ways of analyzing producer age data, or for drawing younger producers into the commercial farming fold. Economic Research Service (ERS) identifies retired farmers in their farm typology framework.  The ERS reports that 11 percent of US farms are retired.  Hum. That means … Continue reading → - [Energy Independence Reflections: July 4, 2025](https://biomassrules.com/energy-independence-reflections-july-4-2025/): The Big Beautiful Bill has passed.  I am trying to keep up as best as a multi-value chain, policy-adjacent economist can.  I am a professional skeptic, and therefore, am pretty sure that regardless of the new policy, we will forge ahead with important things. This is the state-level renewable power chart I prepared last week.  As I was fact-checking, I found the Dept. of Energy map and used that instead.  In 2024, the United States relied on renewable power for 30 percent of its electricity.  For half the states, renewable capacity was less than 25 percent.  These 25 states averaged … Continue reading → - [Great Visuals on Biogas State Production Potential from ABC](https://biomassrules.com/great-visuals-on-biogas-state-production-potential-from-abc/): The American Biogas Council (ABC) had made available current and potential capacity of local state-level biogases, also known as, biogenic methane and other gases produced from ambient organic feedstocks.  The ABC has been in action for less than two decades, which is fairly recent as industry associations go.  ABC is providing excellent resources to authenticate the great value in the biogas production industries.  This industry evolution has been 50 years in the making. In the 1970’s, the Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, codified emissions as externalities.  Waste produced by humans in all … Continue reading → - [Renewable Power Capacity Differs by State - Making $ense of Energy](https://biomassrules.com/renewable-power-capacity-differs-by-state-making-ense-of-energy/): On a total energy consumption basis, the United States hovers just above 10 percent that is sourced from renewable fuels; wind, solar, biomass, hydroelectric, and geothermal feedstocks.  On a recent road trip, it was clear that the Midwest States were not simply business as usual, but there was visibly more local power generation going on than there used to be. In the US, it is pretty easy to get great public data.  The Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA) keeps track of US energy production and consumption.  Much of it is accessible through state energy pages.  This map is … Continue reading → - [Breaking Egg News: Below $3.00/dozen - Real Adventures in Economics](https://biomassrules.com/breaking-egg-news-below-3-00-dozen-real-adventures-in-economics/): In our Central Illinois community, both Kroger and Walmart are selling eggs below $3.00/dozen.  It is difficult to believe that this is news.  However in 2025, the retail price of a dozen eggs was high enough to drive the nation’s food prices upward. Biomass Rules made the point in February that even at $5 per dozen, eggs were a good value. Because one dozen large eggs weighs 24 ounces, and 11 percent of that weight is egg shell, a dozen eggs weighs 1.34 pounds.  This makes a $5 per dozen cost of eggs only $3.71 per pound. In the same … Continue reading → - [Local Ag Drone Pilot Workshop Clarifies Certification, Maintenance and Drone Operation](https://biomassrules.com/local-ag-drone-pilot-workshop-clarifies-certification-maintenance-and-drone-operation/): The Ag Technologies Solutions Group, in Greenville, Illinois, has a vision for simplifying drone pilot training, Part 107 certification, and demystifying drone operations.  ATSG has created a hands-on workshop on navigating the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) policies surrounding piloting unmanned agricultural drones.  Biomass Rules has been privileged to join them in this training adventure.  In addition to providing clarity on the FAA regulations, this program takes the edge off of moving in 2-dimensionally across a farm field, to flying ag inputs over fields in 3-dimensional airspace. The evolution of agricultural drones, or unmanned aircraft system (UAS), is happening very rapidly.  … Continue reading → - [Terrain Ag - Economic Sustainability of Dairy Digesters - Making $ense of Energy](https://biomassrules.com/terrain-ag-economic-sustainability-of-dairy-digesters-making-ense-of-energy/): Ben Laine, Terrainag.com wrote an interesting report dairy digester sustainability.  One graphic message in an animated version of this map shows US dairy digester growth since 2001.  Dairy digesters keep growing in size.  The most recent digesters dwarf the earlier sized digesters.  It is a new era for biologically derived, biogenic natural gas. One difficult to communicate aspect of biogenic natural gas is that it is derived from ambient CO2.  It is not a new addition to atmospheric CO2 like fossil natural gas.  In 2025, it is beginning to be recognized as having a premium value for this attribute. Ben … Continue reading → - [I Went Looking For America and Found It! - Secret Life of Rural America](https://biomassrules.com/i-went-looking-for-america-and-found-it-secret-life-of-rural-america/): A good friend invited me to Hutchinson, Minnesota last weekend to celebrate a joyous life event.  Working in the Midwest most of my career, it is often easiest just to drive rather than fly to neighboring states.  Earlier in my career, I would have made the 10-hour trip in a day each way.  These days, it makes more sense for me to drive less on any given day.  So, a 2 to 3-day trip became a full 5-day trip.  It was perfect. This year has been defined by economic and political uncertainty.  But in the Heartland of the US, it … Continue reading → - [Growing Your Influence by Rob Clark is a Great Resource!](https://biomassrules.com/growing-your-influence-by-rob-clark-is-a-great-resource/): A cool thing happened to me a few years ago.  Rob Clark, of The Tall Family, moved into my community.  At the time, I didn’t know anything about The Tall Family, with billions of views on multiple social media platforms.  I got to know Rob Clark first, as a faculty peer at Greenville University.  That was the perfect way to get to know this humble, social media rock star. I retired from teaching last year, so I am not young.  But I have spent my entire career chasing new frontiers.  So, sitting at the feet of Rob Clark (without realizing … Continue reading → - [Solid Coding using 'Natural' Intelligence Suggests Always Start with FRED - What the Function](https://biomassrules.com/solid-coding-natural-intelligence-suggests-always-start-with-fred-what-the-function/): This final lesson on shaping data in Excel is brought to you by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) website.  Reviewing the YouTube videos created for this data-shaping exercise, the 4 videos span 45 total minutes.  This is about the length of a college class period. Compared to real-time lectures, the videos are much more focused.  Any single technique used to move 300 CPI datapoints can be done by an experience data nerd in minutes.  Most of the video time was in explanations of the objectives and methods. But nothing compares with the speed of … Continue reading → - [Excel Data Shaping Fundamentals VLOOKUP() – What the Function](https://biomassrules.com/excel-data-shaping-fundamentals-vlookup-what-the-function/): A traditional way of shaping data in Excel is by using the VLOOKUP() function.  After identifying the item to look up and the array in which to search for it, a range is identified where the new information can be found.  The VLOOKUP() uses a vertical search of a data table. =VLOOKUP(Lookup value, search array, column index number) There are other ‘flavors’ of lookup functions.  HLOOKUP() searches horizontally, and XLOOKUP(), uses range addresses to move beyond the more rigid search array structure of vertical or horizontal searches.  This post looks at VLOOKUP() for its simplicity of description and execution. The … Continue reading → - [Excel Data Shaping Fundamentals Index/Match - What the Function](https://biomassrules.com/excel-data-shaping-fundamentals-index-match-what-the-function/): One of the most powerful Excel function tools is the INDEX/MATCH() combination.  It can be set to find specific character strings and deliver the cell contents at the intersection of the row and column string matches. This is the third post in the What the Function data transformation series. Excel Data Shaping Fundamentals File Prep – What the Function.  This lesson outlined the challenge and listed common techniques for shaping data in Excel.  It also described steps in downloading the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS), Consumer Price Index (CPI) as a base file for future post lessons. Excel Data … Continue reading → - [Excel Data Shaping Fundamentals Cut and Paste - What the Function](https://biomassrules.com/excel-data-shaping-fundamentals-cut-and-paste-what-the-function/): When cleaning data files in Excel, one never moves away from manually pushing data around.  Manually entering data by hand, sorting, and/or dragging and dropping in a new location; they all take time.  But for small amounts of data, a manual operation may be quicker than programming the spreadsheet to do it for you. Even in this simplified example of reshaping the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS), CPI data, there are lots of data handling tricks and hacks that support the major data shifts in this exercise. To get the CPI data in the  downloaded format to a vertical … Continue reading → - [Excel Data Shaping Fundamentals File Prep - What the Function](https://biomassrules.com/excel-data-shaping-fundamentals-file-prep-what-the-function/): The last few months have provided opportunity to flex my spreadsheet skillset.  Excel code and technique seemed to erupt through the keyboard.  In the last few months, diverse datasets have included: 2024 household food expenditures 2024 household power consumption and solar energy production Since the solar panel data, I downloaded and cleaned 150 days of fitbit data (9,000 data points per day).   This, ‘What the Function’ series is intended to share applied Excel tricks and tips.  Everyone should know how to get public data and fact check it when they are skeptical. The other night, plans were laid to … Continue reading → - [Home Solar Array Offsets Two-Thirds of 2024 Power Consumption-Making $ense of Energy](https://biomassrules.com/home-solar-array-offset-two-thirds-of-2024-power-consumption-making-ense-of-energy/): After all is said and done, this residential solar array in the non-winter months offset 67 percent of home power production.  This chart is monthly solar production and household consumption in kilowatt hours (kWh).  While it required both the solar array production data and the electric cooperative solar power purchases and consumption data to compute, monthly calculations were straight-forward.  Accounting for the benefits is a bit more challenging.  But the deep dive in analytics in the last few weeks has been to gain a better understanding of power flows at the hourly data level. This chart has direct use offsets … Continue reading → - [Lessons Learned from 18,000 Points of Light - Making $ense of Energy](https://biomassrules.com/lessons-learned-from-18000-points-of-light-making-ense-of-energy/): The joy of finding a new dataset to explore enflamed my modeling focus more than was justified.  IT WAS GREAT TO BE LOOKING FOR STORIES IN A BRAND NEW DATASET! Challenge #1:  Monthly data from the power utility was too course to make meaningful decisions about further expansion of the solar array.  Hourly electric cooperative supplied data and hourly solar data was available everyday.  The quest was to break each single, monthly data point into approximately 720 hourly data points. Local rural electric cooperative provided 14 months of hourly data use on power that was purchased from them.  This is … Continue reading → - [Celebrating New Beginnings outside the Fold - Secret Life of Rural Communities](https://biomassrules.com/celebrating-new-beginnings-outside-the-fold-secret-life-of-rural-communities/): For the first time in the last nine years, I participated in Greenville University’s 2025 Commencement Ceremony as a civilian, rather than faculty. Saturday, May 10th, was a glorious day, and so fun to see former colleagues and students and share their excitement for completing the year, their degrees, and pivot into new beginnings. My roots are in Greenville, Illinois. All my life I have been part of this small farming and St. Louis labor-feeder community, before crossing the street to become part of the Greenville University Faculty in 2016. Functioning as part of the University was a good run. … Continue reading → - [Selecting Meaningful Labels for 130,000 Data Points - What the Function](https://biomassrules.com/selecting-meaningful-labels-for-130000-data-points-what-the-function/): A year contains half a million minutes.  The residential solar panel data arrived in five-minute increments, or about 20 percent of the annual minute universe.  Adding in the utility generated data, the two data sources delivered about 130,000 data points. Strictly high-level programmable statistical programs are very efficient for modeling established relationships.  But when there is an element of relationship discovery, programmable spatial data systems like spreadsheets allow more organic trial-and-error relationship discovery. A spreadsheet worksheet has two dimensions: rows and columns. Generally, the largest quantity works best in the rows and the lesser quantity works best on the columns.  … Continue reading → - [Sheets Happen, ...But Not Automatically - What the Function](https://biomassrules.com/sheets-happen-but-not-automatically-what-the-function/): Excel sheets happen, but only if one knows the hidden menus upon which to click. One of the most useful Excel tricks is copying spreadsheets.  Copying and moving a sheet doesn’t show up a lot in the spreadsheet tricks that are commonly available.  This knowledge is valuable for: Making an easy and immediate backup copy of downloaded data, which simplifies starting over without going back to the original source. Additional working backup copies can be made on-the-fly as analyses are being created.  Periodic working backups allow experimentation (new directions) without needing to start from the original data sheet, potentially compromising … Continue reading → - [Forensic Modeling to Bridge Dataset Gaps - Making $ense of Energy](https://biomassrules.com/forensic-modeling-to-bridge-dataset-gaps-making-ense-of-energy/): Modeling tools are used for more than forecasting.  To complete the analysis of household energy consumption, forensic data modeling was required.  Data from two different datasets were needed, and was in slightly different formats that prohibited a smooth alignment. The electric cooperative utility provided hourly power in kilowatt-hours (kWh), 24-hours a day for 14 months.  As illustrated in, Mapping 10,000 Points of Hourly Power Use – Making $ense of Energy, this data did not include solar power consumption.  The utility also provided power they purchased from us, but that was per month, and it is a subset of the solar … Continue reading → - [Mapping 10,000 Points of Hourly Power Use - Making $ense of Energy](https://biomassrules.com/mapping-10000-points-of-hourly-power-use-making-ense-of-energy/): In February, I asked my Electric Cooperative for help in understanding our solar panel output for 2024.   They responded with 10,000 data hourly power consumption points over the 12 months of 2024 and the first two months of 2025. As a renewable energy modeler, I was in renewable energy data heaven! This chart is where I began.  There are multiple stories in this dataset.  The first transformation was aggregating 24 hours per day into 4-hour segments.  These were my data-break choices: 8 p.m. to Midnight (4 hours), evening hours of power consumption after sunset. Midnight to 4 a.m. + 4 … Continue reading → - [Comparative Monthly Solar Output - Making $ense of Energy](https://biomassrules.com/comparative-monthly-solar-output-making-ense-of-energy/): This post continues the deeper dive into power production of a residential solar array.  The last post on solar output looked at daily variability of this solar array in June 2024.  Variability from cloud cover in this geographic location, 45 miles east of St. Louis, Missouri, lowered effective output at about 70 percent of system peak capacity.  This solar array has an installed capacity of 7.6 kilowatts.  That same average daily output curve presented earlier for June is highlighted in this chart as a solid red line.  Today’s post looks at variation between average monthly solar power output levels. The … Continue reading → - [Spring 2025, Death, and New Life](https://biomassrules.com/spring-2025-death-and-new-life/): As the 2025 Easter weekend approaches, the Biomass Rules winter compost pile nears ready-to-apply status.  This photo illustrates all the undervalued organics from 2024, being prepared to add organic matter to the ancient clay soils, which after last year’s construction, are now my yard. Most of the current compost pile is former invasive species, and leaves (discarded biosolar collectors), and cardboard.  It will be spread on the new yard in the coming weeks, adding more organic matter than nutrients.  Turning compost is therapy.  New-life-after-death therapy no less. It is the cycle of life.  Growth, death, recycling of nutrients, more growth. … Continue reading → - [Anatomy of a Residential Solar Collector Output - Making $ense of Energy](https://biomassrules.com/anatomy-of-a-residential-solar-collector-output-making-ense-of-energy/): Conceptually solar energy is straight-forward.  The sun shines and power is produced.  Solar power production has much more variability.  This chart reflects 30 days of solar power production recorded every 5 minutes each day.  The data was collected each day in June 2024. Each daily power production is represented by different shades of gray lines.  One striking feature is the number of near vertical ups and downs.  These are caused by clouds.  Rainy days do not produce a lot of power. The darkest line in the chart is monthly average solar output in 5-minute intervals.  This 30-day average line peaks … Continue reading → - [Comparing Micro Household Food Costs to Macro CPI Food, Food Price Fun](https://biomassrules.com/comparing-micro-household-food-costs-to-macro-cpi-food-food-price-fun/): The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) carries significant weight in the flow of decisions and confidence in the US economy. Does the CPI mirror authentic food purchases?  YES! Are household food expenditures and the Food CPI the same? NO! The last few weeks, we have been enjoying a deep dive into a single household’s food prices.  There are no statistical inference abilities in this data.  It is a serially correlated, non-random sample of one observation.  Personal experience can be illustrative. The BLS, CPI has many subsets.  The primary source of this data is the urban … Continue reading → - [South Central Illinois 2024 Produce Prices - Food Price Fun](https://biomassrules.com/south-central-illinois-2024-produce-prices-food-price-fun/): Over the last few weeks, we have been sharing grocery retail prices (food at home) from our 2024 receipts.  Today’s post captures four produce items: potatoes, mandarin oranges, dill pickles, and raisins.  It is important to recall that this is not a random sample.  This is a personal experience with one source, our household.  There is no statistical inference here, only illustrative value. The first two posts in this food price fun series looked at dairy products and dry, cereal grain foods. A Look Back at Local 2024 Food Purchases – Food Price Fun Processed Food Grain Purchases for 2024 … Continue reading → - [Unpacking Applied Academic Agribusiness Programs](https://biomassrules.com/unpacking-applied-academic-agribusiness-programs/): I had the incredible opportunity to build an undergraduate agribusiness program at Greenville University for nearly a decade beginning in 2016.  I have four agricultural degrees from public land grant universities and worked in university research and extension.  But working at a resource-constrained private university without an agricultural college was incredibly illuminating.  Rather than a price discovery process, it was an agribusiness program discovery process.  What does it take to be a relevant, credible agribusiness degree? Today’s chart is the product of trying to convey the attributes of a replacement director of agribusiness as I moved out of that position.  … Continue reading → - [Processed Food Grain Purchases for 2024 in Rural Illinois - Food Price Fun](https://biomassrules.com/processed-food-grain-purchases-for-2024-in-rural-illinois-food-price-fun/): Food Price Fun compares the theory of food prices to practices of buying food.  On the one hand the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) food prices provide the benchmark for the macroeconomy of food.  But the food microeconomy looks different on the ground with individual household purchases.  Food Price Fun unpacks these macroeconomic and microeconomic perspectives through the illustrative, non-causal, lens of a single household in 2024. The first Food Price Fun post, 3/20/25, looked at 2024 grocery retail purchases in South Central Illinois, dairy products.  All of the products purchased in 2024 were mostly … Continue reading → - [A Look Back at Local 2024 Food Purchases - Food Price Fun](https://biomassrules.com/a-look-back-at-local-2024-food-purchases-food-price-fun/): While reviewing 2024 household expenditures at year’s end, the items within each grocery bill were retrievable.  Access to this level of analysis opens new opportunities for understanding food prices. In the random data universe, this is an n=1.  In other words, looking at a single household’s food purchases is analyzing a serially correlated, non-random sample of one.  Not very statistically sound. But the embedded knowledge from making the purchases, where they were purchase, and why; makes it ideal for illustration purposes. Local food – Food is purchased locally every chance we can.  But when savings from purchases in a neighboring … Continue reading → - [Managing the Cost of Food Waste Inflation](https://biomassrules.com/managing-the-cost-of-food-waste-inflation/): Biomass Rules operates at the intersection of production agricultural food production and opportunities to bring value-adding, agricultural byproducts back into the economy through reuse.  The moving target for value-adding byproducts is the pool of undervalued wastes.  The knowledge of agricultural markets, supply chains, and infrastructure is applied to wasted resources and magic happens. The release of the 2025 ReFED, Surplus to Solutions last month did not look what I would expect a food waste repurposing report to appear.  It was surprising that value-adding industry champions like the composting and biogas industries embraced this report.  But we all see new data … Continue reading → - [The Power of USDA Data in Market Transparency](https://biomassrules.com/the-power-of-usda-data-in-market-transparency/): This chart is from the USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS), USDA Agricultural Projections to 2034, released on 2/18/25.  The 2025 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum occurred the following week, 2/27-28/25.  This series of events mark the end of the last US crop year and the start of the next one. The Projections report is 120 pages and embodies US and global data.  The models are driven by economic assumptions, which USDA provides.  This document is highly dependent on the best data and modeling knowledge available.  It is looking back and looking forward from a point in time (the present).  It is … Continue reading → - [USDA NASS Releases Finer Field Resolution of Cropland Data Layer](https://biomassrules.com/usda-nass-releases-finer-field-resolution-of-cropland-data-layer/): One fun announcement from last week’s, USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum was the release of a finer resolution of field boundaries in the continental United States.  The United States with the exception of Hawaii is available at a 10-meter resolution.  This means that each pixel on the map is accurate to an area 10 meters by 10 meters. Prior to this February 2025 release, the resolution of the images was at 30-meter resolution. There are two sites from which to access this Google Earth-curated data: The site showcased at the 2025 Ag Outlook Forum by Rick Mueller is, https://nassgeodata.gmu.edu/CropScape/ The same … Continue reading → - [The Heartbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza](https://biomassrules.com/the-heartbreak-of-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza/): Last Thursday and Friday, (2/27 & 2/28/2025), the USDA held their annual February, Agricultural Outlook Forum in DC.  This marks the start of another growing season.  The February date allows for last year’s crop year data to be tabulated and forecasts of the new crop to be presented. It is a landmark event for all of agriculture.  Since the pandemic, USDA has facilitated virtual attendance for free.  This is the first February since 2020, that Greenville University agribusiness students have not been required to report on one of the Outlook presentations. Seth Meyer is USDA’s Chief Economist, and brilliant.  I … Continue reading → - [Ethanol Production Optimizes Outputs - University of Illinois](https://biomassrules.com/ethanol-production-optimizes-outputs-university-of-illinois/): On the eve of USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum, Scott Irwin posted his analysis, Trends in the Operational Efficiency of the U.S. Ethanol Industry: 2024 Update.  It looks at four simultaneous outputs: ethanol, DDGS, corn oil, and CO2, from dry-mill ethanol plants, and how those output levels have shifted relative to the input of a bushel of corn. It is brilliant! Professor Irwin’s analysis stands on its own.  From one bushel of corn over the last decade, Ethanol output has increased from 2.80 gallons to 3.00 gallons. DDGS outputs has decreased from 17.34 lbs. to 14.78 lbs. Corn oil output increased … Continue reading → - [Eggs at $5 per Dozen are Still Good Value](https://biomassrules.com/eggs-at-5-per-dozen-are-still-good-value/): The price of eggs reported by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics used in the January Consumer Price Index (CPI), was $4.95 per dozen.  In many places it is higher than this.  In the Midwest if you know where to look, you can still get them for less than that.  Plus this is for prices paid in January and eggs have likely increased since then. How do eggs stack up with the other meat products? Well, the first problem is that all the egg prices are given in $/dozen.  How much does a dozen eggs weigh?  Hum.  Funny you should … Continue reading → - [Discovering Manure Value When Markets and CAFO Regulations Both Fail](https://biomassrules.com/discovering-manure-value-when-markets-and-cafo-regulations-both-fail/): When markets fail to perform efficiently does that mean only a government policy fix will work?  Or when the government policies fail does that mean only a market fix will succeed?  In a word, no.  This chart shows the total pounds of slaughtered cattle, hogs, chickens, and turkeys since 1960. The total pounds of meat produced has doubled since the Clean Water Act was signed in 1973. The marketing framework for manure failed in the 1990s, in part, because manure was not marketed at that time.  Manure had become undervalued and poorly managed.  Enormous reservoirs of anaerobic effluent would occasionally … Continue reading → - [The More For Less of Trade - Real Adventures in Economics](https://biomassrules.com/the-more-for-less-of-trade-real-adventures-in-economics/): Trade fundamentally seeks out the most efficient combination of resource use.  In economic terms, it optimizes the lowest opportunity cost.  The US, and more recently Brazil, produce soybeans so well they supply the world.  When other nations import soybeans, it is less expensive for them to purchase our soybeans at the world price than to produce them locally in their own country.  We are the low opportunity cost producer. In this undergraduate economics multiple choice question, trade provides a comparative advantage benefit to the lowest opportunity cost producer.  It works both ways.  The US imports more than it exports because … Continue reading → - [Local Resource Endowment Comparative Advantages - Secret Life of Rural Communities](https://biomassrules.com/local-resource-endowment-comparative-advantages-secret-life-of-rural-communities/): When the benefits of an activity are difficult to put a dollar value on, or monetize, the traditional cost curves don’t tell the whole story.  Total costs are the sum of all the variable costs and fixed costs.  Undervalued community assets, if included, would effectively lower operational fixed costs. In the post, Discovering the Value of Community – Secret Life of Rural Communities, social, political, and cultural capital do not monetize easily.  The reality that these values are not easy to measure does not disqualify them.  Today’s chart explores the possibility that a strong community delivers quality of life and … Continue reading → - [Discovering the Value of Community - Secret Life of Rural Communities](https://biomassrules.com/discovering-the-value-of-community-secret-life-of-rural-communities/): What is the value of a local home high school football game? How about the value of a community service organization? When I began my teaching career in undergraduate economics, I also moved back to my ancestorial home, Greenville, Illinois, population 7,000 people.  Greenville is a very rural county inside the St. Louis Metropolitan Statistical Area.  That makes it a rural metro county.  It has that standing because a significant number of Bond County, Illinois commute to St. Louis for employment.  Greenville is 45 miles east of St. Louis, Missouri on Interstate-70. I ended up teaching a two-semester undergraduate economics … Continue reading → - [Making Sen$e of the Calculus of Food Price Increases](https://biomassrules.com/making-sene-of-the-calculus-of-food-price-increases/): Food price inflation is still in the news. Eggs have become a national security issue. Well, one would think so from the news. Mostly, the egg-laying chickens are sick and dying. But once we get beyond this egg-industry crisis, we will likely suffer from too many eggs for a bit. Locally, in downstate Illinois in late January 2025, on the same shopping day one grocery store had eggs for $2.99 per dozen, while the store down the street were selling eggs for $7.39 per dozen. Both stores were doing a healthy business. These three charts have all been posted on … Continue reading → - [A Century of Lessons in US Soybean Production - Real Adventures in Economics](https://biomassrules.com/a-century-of-lessons-in-us-soybean-production-real-adventures-in-economics/): One hundred and one years ago, USDA began counting the production of soybeans on US farms.  This is not because that is when farmers began harvesting soybeans for grain.  No.  This is when the quantity of soybean production was sufficient to be identified as a row crop.  Soybeans had been a hay/forage crop prior to oilseed production.  And farms were producing soybeans for the beans for a number of years before 1924.  That year is simply the reference year in which they began to be counted. The Backstory: 1924 was less than a decade after WWI, a global conflict.  It … Continue reading → - [Buckle Up for the 40-Year Cycle of Year-End Food Price Rhythm](https://biomassrules.com/buckle-up-for-the-40-year-cycle-of-year-end-food-price-rhythm/): In a January 21, LinkedIn post about a 1/19/25 Wall Street Journal Article on food prices rising in December, it was speculated that it is traditional food eating month.  If prices were going to rise in an annual cycle, December would be a good month.  Preparing food is a love language, so sure, prices will likely rise over the year end food-centric celebrations. The rest of the day, a methodology was hatched to find support for that claim.  If it was true, there should be a 12-month, annual food price cycle.   It turns out there is.  Three observations leap off … Continue reading → - [Byproduct Price Discovery in the Absence of Demand - Real Adventures in Economics](https://biomassrules.com/byproduct-price-discovery-in-the-absence-of-demand-real-adventures-in-economics/): Agricultural byproducts are not produced on demand.  The quantity of byproduct production is based on the demand for the higher valued commodity or product.  This is not news.  But it seems forgotten in the passionate discussions of waste cooking oils in the production of biofuels, renewable diesel fuel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Agricultural production wastes and byproducts are a pool of unwanted outputs in search of a market demand.  In the case of recycled (converted) paper, in the last 50 years byproduct (waste) paper output has displaced 60 percent of the market for newly milled paper.  Recycled paper has … Continue reading → - [An Inventory of Cellular Transformation on Today's US Farms](https://biomassrules.com/an-inventory-of-cellular-laboratories-on-todays-us-farms/): Is emerging cellular agriculture an extension of farming? Or is it a replacement for farming?  An extension of farming – grain to beer – is an economic complement.  A farm replacement – meat and dairy protein from tanks – is an economic substitution.  What is the role of the farming industry in the industrialization of cellular agriculture. ERS reported, in Economics of Cellular Agriculture, that over 80 percent of proposed rule respondents reported cell cultured food should be lab-raised.  This chart summarizes the farm enterprises currently utilizing microbial processes to deliver their farmed products.  These are some of the same … Continue reading → - [Lab-Cultured Food has Arrived for Farm and Factory](https://biomassrules.com/lab-cultured-food-has-arrived-for-farm-and-factory/): Fifteen years ago, I mentioned to my brilliant director at University of California, Davis, California Biomass Collaborative, that I thought we were heading to a future where we could produce milk and meat without animals, through cellular regeneration.  We had not been working together for very long and he was respectfully skeptical.  A few days later he mentioned that he would have to change his view on that (he had learned from his sources that it was actually happening). That was fifteen years ago, and it is still not convention.  Although we are commercializing laboratory production of food, feed, fuel, … Continue reading → - [Aquaculture is Planet-Saving Anthropogenic Food Production](https://biomassrules.com/aquaculture-is-planet-saving-anthropogenic-food-production/): Raised by depression-era parents, I have lived through the 1980s farm crisis, and spent 2 years as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Nepal using my first degree (BS agronomy) to help Nepali farmers grow more food. In the 80s and 90s, one large environmental problem was how to manage sustainable fisheries.  How can mankind feed its growing population without harvesting species to extinction.  So far, we have not run out of food.  It has taken an army of farmers, agricultural scientists, environmentalists, food manufacturers, and many other vocations, working together to keep us in food. This is one of my … Continue reading → - [US Fish and Microalgae Farms Count at USDA](https://biomassrules.com/us-fish-and-microalgae-farms-count-at-usda/): One of the follow-on surveys to the Census of Agriculture is the Census of Aquaculture. Since the 2022 Census of Agriculture has been conducted, a new USDA, Census of Aquaculture has been conducted for the production year 2023. Fish farmers are counted in the Census of Agriculture, but the follow-on survey allows USDA to go into more detail. Today’s chart is from Table 9 of the 2023 Census of Aquaculture that was published last month in December 2024.  The Census of Aquaculture reports 3,453 fish and domesticated aquatic plant and animal farmers in 2023.  While looking for US algae farms, … Continue reading → - [Farm Size, Asset Management, and Area Under Glass](https://biomassrules.com/farm-size-asset-management-and-area-under-glass/): US Farm size is difficult to label in a quantitative way.  When a measure is easy to derive, it is not very relevant.  While moving toward unpacking cellular agriculture in the next few posts, there are formative steps to cover before that cellular food production nut can be cracked. The US produces and increasing quantity of food through microbial processes.  USDA, ERS posted a fascinating report last month, “The Economics of Cellular Agriculture.”  The most popular flavors of microbial production are erupting in commercialization.  These new technologies will allow safe, healthy food to be grown without crops and livestock. Will … Continue reading → - [Being Green and Clean is More than a Dogma](https://biomassrules.com/being-green-and-clean-is-more-than-a-dogma/): Reusing resources delivers value, not simply added costs.  As I was reviewing data for my editor on US paper sourcing the Wall Street Journal published an article about Wall Street Banks running from clean energy and climate issues.  As new infrastructures emerge, costs don’t go back to the good old days. Fifty years after the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) was signed into law (1976), reusing paper in the United States is more cost effective than beginning from scratch.  This chart from the Economic Census Data shows it is about 60 percent recycled paper sold, to 40 percent newly … Continue reading → - [Modeling Farm Income versus Farm Household Income](https://biomassrules.com/farm-income-verse-farm-household-income/): Over the last few decades, financing the family farm has shifted.  Farm policies and farm management begin with the idea of a farm as the central business unit of a farm household.  This is an excellent place to begin.  But as the farm economy has evolved, the farm business as a primary household enterprise is not representative of US farm households. The USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) does and excellent job of documenting the farm economy.  ERS works jointly with USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) to collect and maintain the Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS).   Under Tailored Reports, it … Continue reading → - [Characterizing US Farms by State with Median and Average Values](https://biomassrules.com/characterizing-us-farms-by-state-with-median-and-average-values/): US farms are very diverse but are easy to group into a common label.  The 1.9 million farms counted by USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) for 2023, are all authentically US farms.  The average number of farms per state results in 37,899 farms per each of 50 states.  The average farm size in the US is 464 acres per farm.  These numbers can have value, but taking the ‘average’ of sample with such wide variations has limited meaning.  Does the value of 37,899 farms represent your state?  Does 464 acres per farm represent the farm sizes in your area?  … Continue reading → - [The Incorrect Use of a Mean to Mean a Midpoint is Just Mean](https://biomassrules.com/the-incorrect-use-of-a-mean-to-mean-a-midpoint-is-just-mean/): English is so difficult.  The word ‘mean’ here has three different meanings, one of which is to understand. The first occurrence of ‘mean’ infers an average. The second ‘mean’ occurrence implies or conveys understanding. The third ‘mean’ is a value judgement (bad).   What’s the point?  Vigilance requires us to stay alert!  Multiple definitions lead to a lack of clarity in economics and economic policy. Theoretical models shape our world.  Taking the average, or mean, of a group of numbers provides economic and operational stability that is often hidden.  It is the continuity of the Central Limit Theorem in our … Continue reading → - [Grit and Joy of a Rural High School Concert - The Secret Life of Rural Communities](https://biomassrules.com/grit-and-joy-of-a-rural-high-school-concert-the-secret-life-of-rural-communities/): The local high school Christmas Concert was this week.  It was packed.  Hours of practice by the students, hours of extracurricular energy from teachers and staff, mountains of volunteer hours from students and parents, and 90 minutes direct joy from student parents, grandparents, cousins, and siblings.  Grit, Joy, and community engagement.  Those are the benefits. These benefits are authentic, highly valued, and are economically efficient, but do not have a monetary value.  If a tree falls in the forest, does it make any sound?  If there is no monetized value, is it really supply and demand?  YES, IT IS! Teaching … Continue reading → - [Evaluating Loan Schedules - What the Function](https://biomassrules.com/evaluating-loan-schedules-what-the-function/): Last week Biomass Rules posted about comparing 4-year loans to 7-loans.  The Wall Street Journal published an article that discussed negative equity from partially paid car loans.  There are multiple factors to consider with more than one correct solution.  The key is knowing what the tradeoffs are for your situation. This week’s, What the Function post looks at one system of MS Excel functions to use to accomplish setting up a loan schedule for a 7-year/84-month loan at 6% for a principal amount of $10,000.  The three functions discussed are: The Payment Function, PMT().  This calculates the payment required for … Continue reading → - [Food Price Inflation is Small Relative to Production and Manufacturing](https://biomassrules.com/food-price-inflation-is-small-relative-to-production-and-manufacturing/): If this chart looks familiar, it is because this is the food price inflation chart used in the post, ‘Food Prices are Not Driving 2024 Inflation – Real Adventures in Economics.  The difference is the scale of the vertical axis.  The earlier food inflation y-axis spanned 20 percentage points. This chart has a vertical axis range of 70 points.  This chart has added food manufacturing cost prices to farming cost prices to retail food prices.  The volatility of these producer costs makes food inflation, solid green line, look small. Prices paid for resources by food manufacturers are reflected in the … Continue reading → - [US Economic Policies are Naturally Fractal and Not Retractable](https://biomassrules.com/us-economic-policies-are-naturally-fractal-and-not-retractable/): In the United States, one president is preparing to leave, while the next one is preparing to take over.  With each presidential transition, there are plans to dismantle policies created during one administration so life will return to better days.  This is not the way economic policies work. Economic policies grow like living things.  In other words, they change over time based on activities and choices made at an earlier time.  They are dependent on an evolutionary history.  Statistically, these policies are non-random, time-series events.  Like the biology of nature, economic policies are naturally fractal. Growing biological plants repeat similar … Continue reading → - [Deriving Real Values for AFBF's Thanksgiving Survey - What The Function](https://biomassrules.com/deriving-real-values-for-afbfs-thanksgiving-survey-what-the-function/): The American Farm Bureau Federation does an excellent job with the annual Thanksgiving Meal Survey, and they have for nearly 40 years.  They have the infrastructure and the expertise to make it work every year.  All of their prices are authentic.  But the economic term for deflating a price series is ‘real’.  Using the easy-to-collect current prices embeds the noise, or inflation, of rising prices in the series.  By removing the inflationary noise, the prices become real and deflated.  This is done by setting the price levels to a given year, in this case to 1986 levels. The most fascinating … Continue reading → - [Import Tariffs Do Not Lower Prices - Real Adventures in Economics](https://biomassrules.com/import-tariffs-do-not-lower-prices-real-adventures-in-economics/): Who pays a tariff? This was a standard question in my Greenville University undergraduate economics class.  Tariffs are taxes, mostly on imported goods.  When the United States imposes a 25 percent, or $0.25/$1, tariff on an imported good, an imported product that retails for $100 before the tariff will effectively cost $125 once the tariff is imposed. Mr. Trump began increasing tariffs on imported goods coming into the United States in 2018.  The most newsworthy tariffs were those placed on goods imported from China.  China, of course, retaliated by increasing tariffs on soybeans imported from the United States.  In both … Continue reading → - [Food Prices are Not Driving 2024 Inflation - Real Adventures in Economics](https://biomassrules.com/food-prices-are-not-driving-2024-inflation-real-adventures-in-economics/): Food prices have been inflated.  Food, as a category in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is no longer driving inflation.  The Wall Street Journal reported on November 2, 2024, that grocery distributors are causing food prices to increase and cause inflation.  The context is the problem.  Grocery distributors may be increasing prices, but it is not causing inflation.  The price increases reported by the WSJ are the cost of doing business.  The WSJ article does a good job of describing the food system infrastructure. The last 10 years of Bureau of Labor and Statistics, CPI data was used for today’s … Continue reading → - [Hidden Benefits of Declining Hog Pastures](https://biomassrules.com/hidden-benefits-of-declining-hog-pastures/): The United States is losing farmland but productivity and output continue to increase.  Last week, the loss of 11 million acres of pastureland to cropland was explored.  That blog also examined the over emphasized claims on cattle as an environmental challenge.  Shifts in U.S. hog production have facilitated gains from lost pastures, but getting hogs off the pastures was a good thing for the environment, as well as the welfare of the pigs. It is difficult not to think of acres as farm size.  It is easy for crops anyway to think of 500 acre of corn being smaller than … Continue reading → - [Veterans Immortalize Our Values](https://biomassrules.com/veterans-immortalize-our-values/): I have benefitted from a rich tradition of military service.  In 1979, I was part of an exchange work-study program on a potato and hog farm in southern Germany.  Working outside of my home environment in the Midwest United States woke me up.  Up till that point, I was coasting.  Working in the comfortable, but very different, nation of Germany opened my eyes.  It was West Germany at that time.  Traveling to East Berlin at the end of my farm commitment with my WWII veteran father, was also formative. Dad, left in the photo, wrote in 1979, ‘When Grandpa Mike, … Continue reading → - [Living into a Century of My Father's Legacy](https://biomassrules.com/living-into-a-century-of-my-fathers-legacy/): My dad, Speed Jenner, was born in 1923, 101 years ago.  It is election day, and Dad spent many years as an election judge in our tiny community in Southern Illinois.  He was a great American.  He set the ‘bar’ high.  Both my mom and dad raised me to follow my own heart, but I find I am their living legacy, …every day. I thought about Dad this morning on my way to vote.  He loved this country.  He was a WWII hero.  And he spent his entire life trying to leave the world a better place than when he … Continue reading → - [Tracking Pastureland Use Change in USDA, Natural Resource Inventory](https://biomassrules.com/tracking-pastureland-use-change-in-usda-natural-resource-inventory/): Land use change has gotten complicated.  Tracking changes in climate have added more than simply physical changes in land use.  The first step in understanding the more sophisticated land use change implications is to understand what land is changing.  The go-to resource for this is the USDA, Natural Resources Inventory (NRI) Report. A few weeks ago, the commercial biogas community was excited about a newly released report that identified potential new sources of biogas and the threat of unchecked methane emissions.  The report on biogas potential referred to a justification from methane leakage from cows.  That, folks, is a worn-out … Continue reading → - [Unpacking the Reported Negative Equity of Used Cars](https://biomassrules.com/unpacking-the-reported-negative-equity-of-used-cars/): The Wall Street Journal reported this week that used cars are losing value faster than they have been.  The term negative equity was discussed.  In the article, car owners were required to settle their loan prior to the full term, and could not recover the value of the principal balance.  This can be a problem. However, it provides a perfect opportunity to discuss how interest rates and loan terms can influence management of the liability of borrowed funds.  Borrowed money can be a great management tool, but poorly managed, it can lead to negative equity. There are at least two … Continue reading → - [Setting Economic Model Context and Boundaries](https://biomassrules.com/setting-economic-model-context-and-boundaries/): The first 15 years after high school were spent chasing windmills, because in those early years of adulthood, all the answers were obvious. Go to college and become smart enough to change the world (age 18 to 22). Save the world by teaching others to grow food in the Peace Corps (24 to 26). Come home and farm (age 26 to 30 years old).   When the solutions didn’t provide anticipated outcomes (success), doors opened in graduate school to learn all the things I didn’t know how to do.  It only took 7 years of graduate school and 3 degrees … Continue reading → - [Off-Farm Income as a Farm Household Business Risk Management Tool](https://biomassrules.com/off-farm-income-as-a-farm-household-business-risk-management-tool/): Farm management focuses on business decision making for the business unit of the farm.  But access to external cash-flows from off-farm income takes some pressure off the total dependence on the success of the farm business unit. Farm Enterprise Analysis Historical production records illustrate that the bottom 20 percent of producers on the low end of profit, have much higher costs than the top 20 percent of producers. While teaching at University of Missouri Extension 10 years ago, I found data on 500 Missouri cow-calf producers over a dozen years.  Summarized, the net returns in this data report, The lower … Continue reading → - [The More and Less of US Energy Consumption](https://biomassrules.com/the-more-and-less-of-us-energy-consumption/): Biomass Rules seeks out examples of increased efficiency and utilization.  This means businesses and economies produce more output from fewer inputs. We have focused our work in research and innovation the last four decades on either developing an innovation, or documenting an innovation.  The shorthand for this is getting more from less.  The US is among the best economies at consuming everything.  But the US is also the best at reducing input requirements just as well.  This post looks at shifts in the output of GDP and Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as population has increased and energy consumption has decreased. … Continue reading → - [Magical Conversion of Text to Dates - What The Function](https://biomassrules.com/magical-conversion-of-text-to-dates-what-the-function/): Biomass Rules Blog students who were working ahead on last week’s crude oil and corn price comparison likely hit an impasse when downloading the monthly corn price data from USDA.  The USDA, National Ag Statistics Service (NASS), Quick Stats monthly data is available in 3-letter months (JAN, FEB, MAR, etc.).  The USDA data used in the monthly corn price in the crude oil/corn price comparison was converted to monthly dates using this technique. Data is not created equally.  Similar data can arrive on one’s device in multiple forms. The Department of Energy, EIA crude oil price data downloads quickly, ready … Continue reading → - [Corn is More than Food - Real Adventures in Economics](https://biomassrules.com/corn-is-more-than-a-food-ingredient-real-adventures-in-economics/): Number 2 Yellow Corn plays many roles these days.  Among them both ‘sustainable savior,’ as well as, ‘destroyer of humanity and the planet.’  That is a pretty broad range.  Back in the good old days, 20 years ago, corn was primarily as nutrient into livestock and human food.  Today it is more.  That change occurred around 2004 through 2006.  The vertical line in today’s chart is at January 2005 for reference. Crude oil is the primary feedstock for diesel fuel and gasoline.  Corn is the primary feedstock into ethanol fuel.  An excellent question is are crude oil prices and corn … Continue reading → - [Turning Straw into Gold, the 'Rumpelstiltskin' of Leftover Organics](https://biomassrules.com/turning-straw-into-gold-the-rumpelstiltskin-of-leftover-organics/): Biomass Rules takes inventory of locally available, undervalued wastes, and finds higher valued markets through which move these once-upon-a-time liabilities back into the economy.  Sometimes straw may be a feedstock into feed, fertility or biofuel products.  Biomass Rules is the Rumpelstiltskin of leftover organics. Rumpelstiltskin is the magic character of the Grimms Fairy Tail by the same name.  He turns straw into gold to the benefit of the miller’s daughter.  And when the daughter’s debt comes due, a new deal is made letting the miller’s daughter off the hook if she can guess his name.  And to Rumpelstiltskin’s despair, she … Continue reading → - [Calculating Annualized Inflation with Rate of Growth - What the Function](https://biomassrules.com/calculating-annualized-inflation-with-rate-of-growth-what-the-function/): The last few years have been an inflationary roller coaster.  On September 26, nearly 50 years of US inflation was used to illustrate HOW NOT TO USE inflation (spurious correlation).  Part of understanding what charts of inflation actually mean, is understanding how they are generated. The base calculation is a simple growth rate equation.  When the change between two time periods, from one period to another period, is evaluated this basic growth rate is the relationship. Note: there are many, kinds of growth rate formula, including the exponential trend used in Midwest Land Prices Only Increase in the LONG View … Continue reading → - [Avoid Inflated and Spurious Correlations](https://biomassrules.com/avoid-inflated-and-spurious-correlations/): It is an election year, and the number of charts showing the economy-wide influences by a single factor are up.  A recent chart making a thin claim about the cause of inflation struck me as a similar rhythm to my career.  It was easy to recreate! Looking at a 40-year series of monthly changes in U.S. inflation recently, Prices increased over time in both businesses I operated in the 1980’s and 2000’s.  In each business, the economy-wide price increase led to rapid price declines. I enjoyed explaining to my undergraduate economic students that the reason the base price for the … Continue reading → - [Forecasting a Plague with Moving Averages](https://biomassrules.com/forecasting-a-plague-with-moving-averages/): Moving averages are the most basic tool, taught in undergraduate courses as an introduction to forecasting.  Prior to the pandemic, commodity futures charts were the go-to illustration of the benefits of moving averages for undergraduate students.  Moving averages smooth out the highs and lows and they do provide a localized forecast that is better than extrapolation of a single record. Then COVID-19 hit, and we (the world) did not know where to begin.  The 7-day moving average became the ‘Little Engine that Could.’  And did! There is no better time to learn economics than when the economy is on fire.  And … Continue reading → - [BioTown, USA - Sourcing Local Biomass Energy Feedstocks](https://biomassrules.com/biotown-usa-sourcing-local-biomass-energy-feedstocks/): Twenty years ago the State of Indiana asked question, “Does a rural community produce sufficient organic wastes to provide energy for the community?”  Fortuitously, Indiana’s BioTown, USA project invited Biomass Rules, LLC to help answer the question.  Today’s table summarizes the findings. The target community was the Indiana hamlet of Reynolds, Indiana, located in the large farming area of White County.  Corn and soybeans were included even though they were too valuable to use for fuel.  They are biomass.  Agricultural residues of corn stover and manure are not without value, but they require innovations and a demand to realize their … Continue reading → - [The Economics of Food - It is Just A Little More Complicated](https://biomassrules.com/the-economics-of-food-it-is-just-a-little-more-complicated/): Hemp seeds command a premium price.  USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) now reports weekly hemp product prices.  In the September 11, 2024 report, one pound of hemp seeds was reported at $12.64.  That is down from $14.39 per pound the week before.  The farm price of peanuts in the same time period (Sept 13, 2024) was reported to be $0.27 per pound. This is like comparing apples and oranges, right? It is inappropriate to compare farm-gate prices like the above peanut price with the processed hemp seed prices (retail grocery).  Different market levels as discussed in the Seminole Role of … Continue reading → - [Impressions of a Fledgling Blogger - Day 257](https://biomassrules.com/impressions-of-a-fledgling-blogger-day-257/): As an economist, I have been trained to see the world through a lens of critical thinking.  As a manure visionary, I have been trained to look beyond traditional monetary values to measure both benefits and costs.  If and when I land a new full-time job, it will be career number 12.  I graduated with my first 4-year degree in 1980. In the last 44 years, I have learned a lot of fun facts, and honestly, I am having a blast sharing obtuse facets of my journey. My last career, teaching young minds in a 4-year agribusiness degree at Greenville … Continue reading → - [Dr. Jenner is Absolutely Crazy about Dollar Signs - What the Function](https://biomassrules.com/dr-jenner-is-absolutely-crazy-about-dollar-signs-what-the-function/): Cell addresses in spreadsheets, by default are relative objects.  This means that when a formula is copied in Excel the relationship to adjacent cells that are included in the copied cell formula, also gets copied.  If the cell to the left is part of the formula in the cell being copied, the formula in the new location will automatically look for formula information in the cell to the left of the target cell (end point of copy).  Cell addresses reference columns and rows.  The cell at the intersection of Column B and Row 3, is labelled cell, B3. My undergraduate … Continue reading → - [A Case of Pricing Wheat from Farm to Food](https://biomassrules.com/a-case-of-pricing-wheat-from-farm-to-food/): Food pricing has many layers.  Earlier, it was established that Biomass Rules considers food to be retail consumption of human nutrients.  There are exceptions, but this working definition simplifies many parts.  It is easy to look at the farm gate price of wheat and compare it to other products along the processor, grocery retail, and restaurant retail prices.  To represent these supply chain stages, we can look at wheat grain, wheat flour, a loaf of bread, and IHOP pancakes, respectively. Price per unit $/lb Wheat grain $4.87 /60-lb bu. $0.081 Branded wheat flour $3.49 /2-lb bag $1.75 Loaf of bread … Continue reading → ## Pages - [Biomass Economics](https://biomassrules.com/everything-bio/biomass-economics/): Biomass economics represents the choices that are made between the replicable facts of the biomass science and the boundaries and infrastructure created by biomass policy.  Another way to define economics is as the choices made in one time period to yield the consequences of a later time period.  A mission of Biomass Rules, LLC is to nudge the traditional perspectives a bit to bring new insights to the reader.  Representative biomass economics papers are: Full Circle Waste to Energy – the RNG Story  In the 1970s major environmental laws were rewritten and strengthened the imposed stick rules on water, air, … Continue reading → - [Bio-Blog](https://biomassrules.com/bio-blog/) - [Which Facts are We Using?](https://biomassrules.com/everything-bio/which-facts-are-we-using/): Click Here for a printable (PDF) Version of this Article Which Facts Are We Using? Mark Jenner, PhD May 22, 2024 Years ago, as an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, a colleague was explaining an ineffective regulation using the context that on a scale from 1 to 10, that rule was a minus 5. That is about as harmonious as political discussions get in an election year. Poorly written federal regulations do more harm than good. They erode the right to own and use private property and are an inefficient use of public and private resources. Economic growth … Continue reading → - [Biomass Science](https://biomassrules.com/everything-bio/biomass-science/): Community Biomass Inventories In 2005, the State of Indiana, launched an innovative initiative to take a small rural Indiana town off of the traditional power grid using locally available biomass.  The project was named, BioTown, USA™.  It was the first biomass inventory conducted by Biomass Rules, LLC.  A brief overview of the project is still available on NBC’s website from July 2006.  ‘Biotown USA’ tries for all-renewable energy The second biomass inventory was conducted for San Benito County, CA, Central Coast Recycling Market Development Zone biomass inventory on local energy use, available biomass fuels and emerging technologies. The third biomass … Continue reading → - [Biomass Policy News](https://biomassrules.com/biomass-policy-news/): I collect biomass data (news and prices) to make Biomass Rules, LLC the top of it’s game as a biomass economic consultant. These are the prices I collect each week and convert to a $/MMBTU (million BTU) basis. This new measure is not perfect, but it allows comparisons that are not possible between barrels and bushels. The price table various fossil and biofuels, as well as some other biomass feedstocks. The commodities are listed with the date of the most recent price, the dollar amount and traditional market units. The last column represents the energy value, $/MMBTU, based on tabled … Continue reading → - [Biomass Policy](https://biomassrules.com/everything-bio/biomass-policy/): US Farms Define the American Dream, 2019. Farms, like so many business terms, can be defined in many different ways. This paper was created to illustrate the position-paper style of writing for agribusiness students. The paper explores three different kinds of farm definition: lifestyle, sacred-calling, and a unit of business. As an economist, my bias is towards the latter. Indexing Biomass Benefits and Risks, 2008. Many of the regulatory conflicts across agencies, industries, and technologies can be eliminated by indexing critical benefits and risks. This paper discusses the concept and the benefits of adopting this kind of framework in permitting … Continue reading → - [Biomass Industry Groups and Organizations](https://biomassrules.com/biomass-links-that-rule/biomass-industry-groups-and-organizations/): Agriculture and Bioenergy Industry Organizations: The Agribusiness Council Agriculture and Applied Economics Association Algal Biomass Organization American Biogas Council American Dairy Goat Association American Farm Bureau Federation American Poultry Association American Sheep Industry Association Association of Equipment Manufacturers Catfish Farmers of America Center for Rural Affairs Clean Fuels Alliance America Consumer Brands Association Farm Financial Standards Council Food Market Institute Harvest Public Media Institute of Food Technologists Livestock Marketing Association National Agri-Marketing Association National Algae Association National Aquaculture Association National Biomass Producers Association National Cattlemen’s Beef Association National Chicken Council National Corn Growers Association National Grain and Feed Association National … Continue reading → - [Biomass Industry News Resources](https://biomassrules.com/biomass-links-that-rule/biomass-industry-news-resources/): BioCycle Magazine Advancing composting, organics recycling & renewable energy Biodiesel Magazine Biomass Magazine DTN/Progressive Farmer Ethanol Producter Magazine Farm Journal/Ag Web Successful Farming - [Federal Biomass/Energy Resources](https://biomassrules.com/biomass-links-that-rule/federal-biomass-energy-resources/): Department of Energy (DOE) DOE, Energy Information Administration (EIA) US Energy Statistics DOE, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) US Renewable Energy Research DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)  US Energy Information DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Biomass Program DOE/USDA, Biomass Research and Development Board (BRD) The multi-agency effort to coordinate all Federal biobased products and bioenergy research and development. Argonne National Laboratory, GREET Model, The GREET Model is one of the standards for conducting Life Cycle Assessments (LCA). U.S. Department of Energy Combined Heat and Power and Microgrid Installation Databases, National CHP power plant … Continue reading → - [Great Biomass Resources (non-federal)](https://biomassrules.com/biomass-links-that-rule/great-biomass-resources-non-federal/): Regulations/Programs:   Database of State Incentives for Renewable Energy (DSIRE) University Extension, Ag and Biomass Technical Information:   Ag Manager, Department of Agricultural Economics at Kansas State University Agribusiness and Policy Extension, University of Missouri California Biomass Collaborative, University of California, Davis Cornell University Extension Farmdoc, University of Illinois Extension Iowa State University, Extension and Outreach ISU, Bioeconomy Institute Iowa Manure Management Action Group (IMMAG) Ag Marketing Resource Center (AgMRC, ISU): Renewable Energy Pennsylvania State University Extension Pennsylvania State University, Online Energy Selector Tool Purdue University Extension University of Minnesota Extension Resources on Ag, Bioenergy, and Carbon Values:   ECO Engineers … Continue reading → - [US Dept. of Agriculture Sites of Interest](https://biomassrules.com/biomass-links-that-rule/us-dept-of-agriculture-sites-of-interest/): Office of the Chief Economist Agricultural Outlook Forum World Outlook Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Baseline Projections Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Market News, real time local and national prices Rules and Regulations, latest on voluntary and mandatory marketing rules Generic Promotion Board Oversight American Egg Board; American Lamb Board; American Pecan Promotion Board; Cattlemen’s Beef Board; Christmas Tree Promotion Board; Cotton Board; Fluid Milk Processors Promotion Program; Hass Avocado Board; Highbush Blueberry Council; Mushroom Council; National Dairy Promotion & Research Board; National Honey Board; National Mango Board; National Peanut Board; National Pork Board; National Potato Promotion Board; National Watermelon Promotion … Continue reading → - [Everything BIO](https://biomassrules.com/everything-bio/): Biomass Economics Biomass Policy Biomass Science Which Facts are We Using? - [Biomass Links that Rule](https://biomassrules.com/biomass-links-that-rule/): US. Dept. of Agriculture Links of Interest – USDA provides incredible public resources.  This is a weak attempt to connect to the most significant USDA Internet resources. Federal Non-Agricultural Biomass/Energy Resources – biomass, waste and energy sites available from the federal government. These include the Department of Energy (DOE), The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the Department of Commerce. Great Biomass Resources (non-federal) – These are the starting place for biomass/environmental/energy resources. This should be considered the general basics of this kind of information. Biomass Industry Groups and Organizations – These are the ‘Movers and Shakers’ of market development for specific groups. Biomass … Continue reading → - [Contact Us](https://biomassrules.com/contact-us/) - [About Us](https://biomassrules.com/about-us/): Bio/Profile: Mark Jenner is a biomass economist and owner of Biomass Rules. His vision for biomass economic opportunity is unparalleled. Jenner is passionate about pulling underutilized organics INTO the economy rather than isolating them as wastes. Biomass Rules, LLC combines principles of agronomy, engineering, livestock production, policy, and economics to conduct feasibility studies and biomass inventories. Biomass Rules emerged as a vehicle for Jenner to do business as a consultant in value-adding biomass development projects.  This worked well until the economic downturn occurred in 2008. In 2009, Jenner went on the road.  This included: A 3-year tour  with the California … Continue reading → - [Home](https://biomassrules.com/): Welcome to a World Where Biomass Rules! Biomass Rules was born in early years (00’s) of the new century, out of growing consumer excitement in biofuels, recycling residual organics and an increasing interest (economic demand) in a cleaner, more durable environment. Decades later, the interest in a regenerative world continues to grow.   The virulent, fast moving microbe (COVID-19 pandemic), brought the global economy to a halt.  The food and fuel supply chains have been scrambled.  The US and other economies are racing to try to figure out the new ‘normal.’ From the view-point of a gray-haired, agricultural economist, the demand … Continue reading → [comment]: # (Generated by Hostinger Tools Plugin)